Pending Ratios

As I've discussed before, pending ratios are a good way to look at how "hot" a particular real estate market is and to compare it to other markets or the same market at a different time. I noticed today we have 83 active listings for single family homes in the Leavenworth area. This is certainly a lot more than the 40 some we had for most of the Spring. But are houses selling? I've been staying busy with lots of sales, but that's not a good barometer for the market as a whole. As they say on NPRs Market Place... Let's look at today's numbers: There are 20 homes under contract out of the total of 103 homes. At 19% pending ratio this is clearly a "buyers market". Tell that to the buyers out there. Prices are increasing and the inventory seems lacking. Here's why: Homes under $200,000 This is the hot ticket item. We know this anecdotally and the numbers show it too. 5 out of 7 homes are pending for a ratio of 71%. A seller's market under $200,000. $200-300,000 This is a typical vacation or second home buyer. 5 of 24 homes are pending. At 21% this should be a buyer's market. Of course there are only 19 homes to choose from and most of them aren't great. I think it's a buyer's market in town and seller's market out of town. The lesson here? Pricing does matter and product does too. Seller's need to work harder to get their homes in marketable shape. $300-400,000 5 homes out of 20 pending. 25% pending ratio. Really the same story as above. $400-500,000. 7% $500-600,000 20% $600-700,000 14% $700,000+ 13% Still looks like a buyer's market to me over $300,000. The inventory is low, but it's double what it was this spring. Seller's (and their agents) have just been too optimistic in their pricing. Is the bubble bursting? No. Are these numbers drastically different than earlier this year? Not really. Mostly what I see is folks trying to cash in on the real estate jackpot. Their own greed is keeping them from seeing any real gains. The market (buyers) set prices- not agents, not sellers and not appraisers.

Fiber Optics Coming Soon?

We had a client call and ask about the availability of fiber optics. As many of you know, Chelan County PUD has an ambitious goal to make fiber available to its residents. The PUD hopes to get fiber to 75% of residents by 2008 and the entire county by 2012. To learn more, or see if a particular address has fiber available check here.

Market Update

I had a spare moment so I decided to take a look at market numbers for the Leavenworth market. I think this is really important since these numbers are in contrast with housing sales nationally. (National Stats) If we look at the number of homes (single family, not condos or manufactured homes) sold in 2006 we see an increase of 7% in the number of homes sold year to date in the Leavenworth area. The dollar volume is up 21% and the average sales price is up too. Last year at this time the average sales price to date was $288,500. It is up 12% to $325,000. The median sales price is up 17% to $287,500. Sales growth continues to be strong. The drop in mortgage rates over the past few weeks certainly will help too. Unfortunately, we are short on the inventory that buyers are looking for. The average price of the 70 some houses currently on the market is $509,000. This is nearly $200,000 more than the average sales price. The numbers also don't tell the whole story. What is selling? Vacation homes, waterfront homes, cabins and condos. There are some great in town homes that are priced well, but Seattle buyers just don't need a second home that's just like their primary residence.

Spokesman Review Blogspotter

Thanks to Frank Sennett of the Spokane Spokesman Review for including me his review of Washington State real estate blogs. The mention is enouraging. I think blogs are a great resource for both consumers and industry insiders. When I'm not out selling homes or blogging here, I'm over at Rain City Guide peeking in at the Seattle real estate market.